Virginia’s off year state legislative elections are often sleepy and not given much attention. Tuesday night, however, was a huge exception. Democrats poured in record sums of money into House of Delegates and State Senate races. These investments paid off, resulting in democrats winning complete control of Virginia’s legislature. By contrast, the national republican party declined to send any money. The result is a stinging rebuke to GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin, who made a strong effort to win the legislature for his party, after only controlling the House of Delegates for the past two years. Democrats successfully defended their State Senate majority, and flipped back the House of Delegates, which they lost in 2021.
Every fall in Virginia, political ads dominate the airwaves. In this election, democratic candidates ran heavily on abortion rights, casting republican candidates as too extreme on the issue. Republican candidates ran heavily on crime, which has been a hot-button issue in Virginia for some time. In the end, democratic candidates were highly successful in courting voters concerned about abortion rights. The path for control of the legislature ran through many urban areas of the state- from Northern Virginia, to Roanoke, to Richmond, and down to Hampton Roads and Virginia Beach.
In the State Senate, democrats went into the election with a 22-17 majority, needing to hold essentially every seat to maintain their advantage. In the 31st district, located in Loudoun and Fauquier counties, democrat Russet Perry, a former CIA officer and prosecutor, defeated republican Juan Pablo Segura, a political newcomer. This race in particular was a must win for democrats, and as a result, it dominated the airwaves going back to September. Russet Perry won 53% of the vote, to Segura’s 47%. Downstate, in the Hampton Roads area, democratic senator Monty Mason narrowly lost his re-election to republican Danny Diggs. This race was characterized as the most competitive in the Senate, according to CNalysis.com, a forecasting website. However, in the Richmond suburbs, democrat Schulyer VanValkenburg defeated incumbent republican senator Siobhan Dunnavant, resulting in democrats winning control of the State Senate.
In the House of Delegates, republicans went into this election with a slight advantage, and faced fierce opposition campaigning from democrats trying to win back the chamber. While as of the writing of this article all but one races have been called, Democrats currently have won 51 out of 100 seats, a clean majority, and Republicans have won 48 seats. In Prince William County, democratic candidate Josh Thomas won against republican candidate John Stirrup, a key victory for democrats. Additionally, democratic candidate Josh Cole won against republican candidate Lee Peters in the Fredericksburg area. These wins, along with several others, solidified control of the House of Delegates into democratic hands.
When Governor Glenn Youngkin was elected in 2021, it was a dark night for democrats. Losing all of the statewide offices and the House of Delegates was a stinging defeat. So far, Youngkin has been a popular governor according to state polls. Youngkin was hoping his personal popularity, along with the unpopularity of President Biden, would lift up republican candidates in this election. Youngkin championed what he called a “reasonable 15 week abortion ban with exceptions”, which he hoped would serve as a compromise in a reliably democratic state. Voters however, particularly suburban women and independents, were weary of this campaign promise.
In the aforementioned race between democrat Josh Thomas and republican John Stirrup, earlier this year, John Stirrup was secretly recorded by operatives, stating that “I would support a 100% ban.”
This soundbite made the rounds on the Northern Virginia airwaves, undoubtedly giving Josh Thomas a line of attack against Stirrup. Many political analysts have stated that the aftermath of the overturning of Roe V. Wade is still energizing democratic voters. Since the overturning of Roe, numerous states, from the reddest of the red, to the bluest of the blue, have voted to protect abortion rights.
As republicans in Virginia begin to reflect on their election loss, what will likely occur to them is that Youngkin’s position on reproductive rights, along with anger at the overturning of Roe, dealt a huge blow to their chances. Youngkin’s term as governor ends in 2025, and he will be unable to run for re-election. For the next two years, he will have to work with a democratically controlled legislature, which will diminish his national profile amongst republicans. In recent weeks, rumors were circulating in republican circles that Youngkin could make a late entry into the presidential race. But after Tuesday night, Youngkin stated that he would stay out of the presidential race.
