Russia is threatening Ukraine’s borders with over 100,000 troops, demanding that NATO scale back its presence in Eastern Europe and prevent Ukraine from joining the alliance.  The countries are negotiating now, but war is certainly on the table for Putin, and the rest of the world is preparing for it.

Weeks ago, US and Ukrainian officials noticed that Russia had been emptying out it’s Ukrainian Embassy of diplomats and their families. Over the course of several days, these families embarked on a long bus ride back to Moscow, Russia. When questioned about it, Russian spokespeople assured that the embassy was functioning adequately, avoiding any disclosure of  proper reasoning.  Experts wonder if this may have been a tactical play by Putin to address his next move.

Aleksandr Kukashevich, a Russian diplomat, explained that Russian troops were gathering on Belarus’s west border for a joint military exercise named “Allied Resolve”.  The Russians also sent troops to Poland and Lithuania: two NATO members.  Troops placed here could also potentially be another take off point for attack.

Russians have demanded that NATO remove their influence from eastern Europe.  In addition, they are requiring the organization to pass legislation preventing Ukraine from ever joining the Western alliance.

Membering countries of NATO are engaging in negotiations with Russia, most of which end in unresolved unease. The Russians are set on their terms and while they’re willing to negotiate, that will is slowly evaporating. Russia had sent out a draft of their conditions a few months ago, but the United States isn’t willing to comply. “This is what we call a dead end or different approach,” Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei A. Ryabkov said.

Other countries in eastern Europe are also coming to terms with the potential for war.  Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau of Poland expressed in a negotiation session that the risk for war is higher than it had been in over 30 years.

Even still, the representatives and officials of the United States aren’t necessarily all-willing to comply.  US Representative Blake Carpenter said that “we must never stand for the flouting or erosion of our bedrock principles.  That means no tolerance for overt or tacit spheres of influence, no restrictions on sovereign rights of nations to choose their own alliances, no privileging one state’s security requirements over those of another.”  Many western nations are backing the meaning behind his words and holding steadfast. According to the New York Times, these countries believe all sovereign nations should have the right to decide their own alliances. The reason why Russia would try to dictate the Ukrainian government is that NATO so close to their borders looks like a security threat.

If Russia is to attack, they have different options.  One way they could attack is by cyber attacking the Ukrainian power grid.  Microsoft has found that the Russians have installed malware into their systems, but have not launched it yet.

Another way Russia could attack is by sending forth their troops massing at the borders of those other countries. Experts believe that the troops in Belarus will remain stationary, but those in Poland and Lithuania could potentially still move forward and invade.  

American and European intelligence are not yet clear on what the Russians will decide, but it is known that Putin’s window of time is closing. The US and other countries have been supplying Ukraine with weapons.

In addition, if Putin were to invade with military force, he would have to wait for the right time of year. Worldwide military experts explained that heavy artillery (ex. tanks) don’t travel well in swampy or muddy terrain.  If Russia invades during the dead of winter, then the ground will be frozen enough to support the weight of their weapons.  In addition, all countries that tried to invade Russia in the past hadn’t been successful. Because so much of Russia is frozen, they’ll have the upper hand when Ukraine is frozen, too.

Currently, the Turkish President offered to settle this conflict through their annual conferences with Russia.  Putin accepted this offer, but explained it won’t take place until his return from the Beijing Olympics Games.

It’s still unclear what Putin will decide, but growing evidence gathered by diplomats and intelligence are supporting that Ukraine isn’t out of the clear.  Europe agreed after the second world war that changing borders should only be through diplomatic and not violent ways.  Despite Western efforts, Russia might use force in order to keep the rest of the west away from their own borders.